11/17/2020

Middle Market Senior Housing

Serving the middle market is imperative for the health and welfare of our senior populations.


What is Middle-Market Senior Housing and Assisted Living?

  • Seniors over the age of 75
  • Entry middle: $25,000 to $35,000
  • Average middle: $35,000 to $75,000
  • High-end middle: < $100,000
  • Reliance on housing equity
  • Aging in place and rising acuity
  • Socially isolated
  • “Affordability” depends on geography

Is there a Market for Middle-Market Senior Housing?

  • An estimated 50-60% of seniors in the middle market are not being served.
  • There are an estimated 8 million middle-market 75+ persons in the country, estimated to increase to over 14 million by 2029 – Over half of these persons cannot afford traditional market-rate alternatives.
  • The middle market is growing faster than low-income and the fastest-growing segment overall.
  • An estimated 60% will have mobility issues, and 20% with high acuity and extensive needs – Many will not have the financial resources to pay for the increased cost of care.

What Needs to be Done for the Middle-Market Seniors?

  • The middle market is larger than both the low-income and high-income markets combined.
  • Demand is currently outstripping supply in many markets.
  • Long-term demand – This segment will have a “never-ending” supply – Growth for the next 10–20 years and likely through 2050.
  • An estimated 50-60% of seniors in the middle market are not being served.
  • There are an estimated 8 million middle-market 75+ persons in the country, estimated to increase to over 14 million by 2029
  • Over half of these persons cannot afford traditional market-rate alternatives.
  • Target key areas that match need and affordability.

There are significant challenges, according to Beth Mace, chief economist at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). She is one of the authors of the Health Affairs study titled “The Forgotten Middle: Many Middle-Income Seniors Will Have Insufficient Resources for Housing and Health Care.” According to the authors of the May 2019 published article in Health Affairs, it’s the first study to project senior housing and health care needs by income group.

The authors found that the number of middle-income seniors will nearly double by 2029 to 14.35 million over the age of 75. Of these, 8% will have a cognitive impairment, 60% will have mobility limitations, and 20% will have high needs. Yet, more than half—54%–will not have the financial resources to pay for traditional senior housing and related support care.

“There were a lot of interesting takeaways in the study,” says Mace. “We can now define the middle market as teachers, firefighters, government workers, and nurses, who are among those who will not have the means to afford the most common options for senior housing. Also, there will be fewer married people compared to [the] 61% in the group who are married today. That means they won’t have a spouse to take care of them.”